Daily Market Playbook → Tuesday, April 15, 2025Technical Breakdown + Trading Strategies
S&P 500 / SPY → Technical Outlook
→ Context:
SPY staged a sharp V-shaped rebound after tariff pauses + China exemptions.→ Momentum:
- MACD → Bullish crossover forming
- RSI → Climbing from oversold, now mid-40s
- Volume → Heavy institutional activity on rebound days
→ Caution:
Prior selling volume was larger → Rally could still be a bear market bounce.→ Bias:
- Short-term → Bullish
- Mid-term → Cautious
Trade Ideas:
- Bullish: SPY April 19th 540 Call
- Neutral: SPY April 19th 540 Call + 530 Put (Strangle)
USO (Oil Fund) → Technical Outlook
→ Price Action:
Trading below 9 & 18-day SMAs → Bounce looks technical, not a trend reversal yet.→ Momentum:
- MACD → Bearish crossover confirmed
- RSI → Mid-40s, room to push higher
- Volume → Spike likely short-covering
→ Bias:
Bearish overall — Short-term pop possible
Trade Ideas:
- Bullish: USO April 26th $70 Call
- Bearish: USO April 26th $67 Put
- Neutral: USO April 26th $68 Call + $68 Put (Straddle)
GLD (Gold) → Technical Outlook
→ Price Action:
Trading near all-time highs→ Momentum:
- RSI & MACD → Overbought, strong bullish momentum but risk of pullback
→ Bias:
Cautiously Bullish
Trade Ideas:
- Bullish: GLD April 26th $300 Call
- Bearish: GLD April 26th $290 Put
- Neutral: GLD April 26th $295 Call + $295 Put (Straddle)
Bitcoin (BTC) → Technical Outlook
→ Price Action:
At a critical level → Testing Ichimoku Cloud resistance→ Key Levels:
- Bullish Trigger: Above $85,000
- Bearish Breakdown: Below $75,000
→ Bias:
Rangebound → Await breakout
XRP → Technical Outlook
→ Pattern:
Bull Flag + Rare Bullish EMA Cross (55-week vs 155-week)→ Bias:
Bullish