MARKET UPDATE 17.APRIL.2025

🔹 SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Technical Breakdown

→ Trend:

Still in a downtrend.

Price is trading below both the 9-day and 18-day MAs (both downward sloping).→ Bollinger Bands:

Price is hugging the lower band — volatility remains high, risk elevated.→ Momentum Indicators:

• MACD: Trying to climb, but still below signal line and zero → early momentum, not confirmed
• RSI: Near 50 → Neutral → Market at inflection

→ Volume:

Recent red candles show heavy spikes → institutional selling still dominant→ Short-Term Bias:

Cautiously Bearish – Weak bounce, bears still in control until $550+ breakout→ Trade Ideas:

• 🔻 Bearish Put Debit Spread
  • Buy: SPY $530 Put (1–2 weeks)
  • Sell: SPY $515 Put
• ✅ Bullish Credit Spread (risk-controlled)
  • Sell: SPY $510 Put
  • Buy: SPY $500 Put

🔹 USO (Oil Fund) – Technical Breakdown

→ Trend:

Still bearish.

Price consolidating below 18-day MA (~$68), minor resistance at 9-day MA.→ Bollinger Bands:

Relief rally testing midline — could be a fade if price can't clear $70–$71→ Momentum Indicators:

• MACD: Climbing, but still bearish
• RSI: ~45, recovering from oversold, but still below 50

→ Volume:

Bounce on lighter volume = weak conviction.

Previous sell-offs = heavy distribution.→ Short-Term Bias:

Neutral to Slightly Bearish — Unless $71 breaks on strong volume→ Trade Ideas:

• 🔻 Bearish Setup:
  • Puts: $67–$65 exp. 1–2 weeks (if rollover under $70)
• ✅ Cautious Bullish Setup:
  • Calls: $72–$74 exp. 2–3 weeks (only on breakout above $71)

🔹 GLD (Gold ETF) – Technical Breakdown

→ Trend:

Strong uptrend. GLD riding the upper Bollinger Band, posting fresh highs.→ Volume:

Expanding → confirming institutional demand→ Momentum Indicators:

• MACD: Strong bullish crossover, histogram rising
• RSI: Pushing toward 80 → overbought, but in strong trends this can persist

→ Short-Term Bias:

Strong Bullish – Pullbacks may occur but uptrend is intact→ Trade Ideas:

• 🚀 Momentum Entry: $306–$308
• ⚠️ Fade (aggressive short-term only): $308–$310

→ Final Thought:

GLD is behaving like a macro hedge. Institutions are betting big. The chart reflects distrust in fiat.

🔹 Bitcoin (BTC) – Technical Snapshot

Bias:Bullish with short-term caution

→ Still holding up well; breakout requires reclaiming key resistance zones

🔹 XRP – Technical Snapshot

Bias:Neutral to Bullish – Coiling setup forming

→ Watch for breakout from current consolidation